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Market Outlook Q1 2024 | Fractal RE x Meybohm Commercial

Brian Sweeting of Fractal RE shares his Q1 2024 market outlook covering CRE bottoming signals, CMBS issuance trends, retail sales growth, and accelerating foot traffic.

Brian SweetingApril 14, 2026
Market Analysis

Acknowledging the challenges and perceptions stemming from stalling a U.S. GDP, and the continued high-rate environment throttling CRE capital markets activity, we, however, believe commercial real estate overall is bottoming. This belief being underpinned by three key developments: first, CMBS issuance and delinquency; secondly, continued U.S. retail sales growth; and third, accelerating retail foot traffic.

Regarding CMBS, the first quarter saw nearly $18 billion in new issuance; roughly tripling the volume for the first quarter last year, and outpacing S&P Global's 2024 forecast of $50 billion when forecast as an annualized figure. March alone was responsible for $9 billion and is the highest monthly total since February 2022. Despite the modest increase to overall delinquency rate, driven largely in part by office, retail rates have dropped substantially from their pandemic highs at 17% to just above 5%.

Month over month, U.S. retail sales continue to perform beating expectations. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, March is up 0.7% from the previous month and is up 4% over March 2023. The first quarter is up 2.1% compared to the same period last year. In Comscore's, "State of Digital Commerce" study, 2023 was the highest-spending online retail year ever as U.S. consumers spent $1.3 trillion over 2022's $1 trillion spend. In spite of the latest expansions in e-commerce, our positions are fortified by our investment and recruitment of internet resistant tenants. Approximately 76.6% of our square footage is leased to service-oriented tenants, and 23.5% is leased to essential services including health care providers and restaurants.

Lastly, retail foot traffic is up 6.1% compared to 2023's first quarter. Foot traffic saw incremental growth week over week as the quarter grew on, peaking in late March. This continued growth comes on the heels of an unusually cold January, coupled with pricing remaining high and plateauing consumer confidence.